In addition, monthly trend analysis reveals that the current result represents the highest rating in the 21-month period that NOIPolls commenced its monthly governance polls in January 2013. Prior to this current poll result, the highest job approval rating ever recorded by President Jonathan was 78% in September 2010, upon his official appointment as President of the Federation following the untimely demise of President Musa Yar’ Adua.
Furthermore, an assessment of the President’s performance on key elements of his transformation agenda revealed that he achieved a very good rating (4) in Agriculture & Food Security for the first time since January 2014. More findings reveal that 52% of adult Nigerians surveyed reported that power supply to their households had improved within the last one month. Conversely, 35% of the respondents were of the view that power supply to their households had remained bad and/or it had gone worse while 13% claimed their power supply had neither improved nor worsened over the past one month. These are some of the key findings from the Governance Snap Poll conducted in the week of September 27th 2014.
These results represent the ninth in the 2014 monthly series of governance polls conducted by NOIPolls to gauge the opinions and perceptions of Nigerians regarding the approval rating of the President, the performance of the President on key elements of his transformation agenda, and the state of power supply in the country.
Respondents to the poll were asked three specific questions. The first sought to assess the opinion of Nigerians on the performance of President Goodluck Jonathan over the past 1 month. Respondents were asked: Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Jonathan in the past 1 month? The results revealed that 74% of adult Nigerians surveyed (49% + 25%) approved of the job performance of the President in the past 1 month. On the contrary, a total of 14% disapproved of the President’s performance (11% + 3%) while 12% were neutral as they neither approved nor disapproved.
Analyzing the President’s performance rating by geo-political zones revealed that the South-East zone had the largest portion of respondents who approved of the President’s job performance with 89%. This is followed by the North-East zone with 79% and the South-West zone has 77%. In addition, there are variances by gender; more female (77%) than male respondents (69%) approved of the President’s job performance in September 2014.
A comparative analysis of the President’s job approval rating by geo-political zone for Q3 2014, reveals that his approval rating in September 2014 increased across all zones with the most drastic increase of 34-points observed in the North-East. This was followed by significant increases in the North-West (16-points) and South-West (11-points). These three (3) geo-political zones had the largest proportion of respondents whose perception of the President’s job performance shifted from disapproval to approval resulting in the 13-point overall increase in the President’s job rating in September 2014. This increase could be attributed to a series of successes recorded in the month of September by the Nigerian military over Boko Haram terrorists that have boosted the confidence of Nigerians particularly in the North-East and North-West regions which are most affected by the on-going war against terror. Furthermore, the handling of the Ebola Virus Disease that resulted in commendations from Nigerians and international bodies such as the World Health Organisation could be responsible for the increase in the approval rating particularly in the South-West where the virus first hit the country.
Monthly trend analysis of the President’s approval rating reveals a substantial 13-point increase to stand at 74% in September 2014. This current result represents the highest rating recorded over the 21 month period since NOIPolls started its monthly governance poll in January 2013 and the most drastic increase observed in a 1 month interval. In addition, the highest approval rating ever recorded by President Jonathan was 78% in September 2010, shortly after he took over the presidential office following the demise of the then President Musa Yar’Adua. The average rating of the President’s job performance over the nine months in 2014 stands at 58.4% while the current result is 15.6-points higher than the nine month YTD average.
To gauge the performance of the President on pertinent elements of his transformation agenda, respondents were asked: On a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is very poor and 5 is excellent, how would you rate the performance of the President Jonathan in the following areas? (1) Job Creation (2) Power (3) Economy (4) Health (5) Education (6) Agriculture & Food Security (7) Transportation (8) Foreign Policy & Diplomacy and (9) Security. The outcome shows that the President achieved an average rating (3) in terms of his performance in Job creation, Power, Economy, Education, Health, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy except for Security in which he performed very poorly (1). This central component of his transformation agenda has remained very poor since February 2014. Security remains a major concern to Nigerians as revealed in the 2014 Independence Day Special Edition Poll where the majority described it as the most important issue that should be addressed in the next 1 year. Additionally, Agriculture & Food Security has for the first time since January 2014 recorded a very good rating of 4. During survey administration, respondents’ comments indicated that the relative stability in the prices of food stuff is the basis for the very good rating for Agriculture & Food Security.
Trend analysis indicates that the President’s performance rating on Economy, Health, Transportation and Foreign Policy & Diplomacy has maintained an average ranking (3) since February 2014. Furthermore, Agriculture & Food Security achieved an above average rating (4) and this might possibly be linked to the perceived relative stability of foodstuff in the market at present. In contrast, the President’s performance rating on Security has remained very poor (1) since February 2014. This is the only aspect of his transformation agenda that has constantly rated poorly after it was ranked above average (4) in January 2014.
Finally, in order to assess the state of power supply to Nigerian households over the past month, respondents were asked: How would you describe power supply in your area in the last 1 month? Responses reveal that overall 52% of adult Nigerians surveyed reported that power supply in their area has improved; 19% responded “it has improved very much” and 33% “it has improved a little” respectively. On the contrary, 35% of the respondents were of the view that power supply has either remained bad or worsened (18%+17). Also, 13% indicated that power supply to their households had neither improved nor worsened over the past 1 month claiming “there’s no difference at all”.
Analysis by gender highlights key differences; more female (56%) than male respondents (48%) claim they experienced an improvement in situation of power supply to their households. On the contrary, slightly more male (38%) than female respondents (32%) described power supply in the area over the past one month as inadequate.
Monthly trend analysis reveals a slight 1-point increase in power supply in September from August 2014; the highest power supply rating recorded so far in 2014. The average power supply rating from January to September 2014 is 39.1% and the current result is 12.9-points above the yearly average till date.
In conclusion, almost three in four adult Nigerians (74%) approved of the job performance of President Jonathan in September 2014; 49% approved and 25% strongly approved and this represents the highest approval rating for the President in the 21 month period from January 2013. Furthermore, trend analysis by geo-political zones depicts that the North-East zone experienced the largest increase in approval rating; a drastic 34-point increase from August 2014 while the approval rating nationwide experienced a 13-point increase in September 2014. This sharp increase as mentioned in previous paragraphs could be attributed to a series of successes recorded by the Nigerian military over Boko Haram and the effective response of the government with respect to the Ebola Virus Disease. Present results are only 4-points lower than the highest ever job performance rating of 78% recorded by President Jonathan in September 2010. Finally, slightly more than half of adult Nigerians (52%) reported improvements in the power supply to their households in September 2014; this represents a slight 1-point increase in power supply rating and the highest rating recorded so far in 2014.
The opinion poll was conducted in the week of September 27th 2014. It involved telephone interviews of a random nationwide sample. 1,000 randomly selected phone-owning Nigerians aged 18 years and above, representing the six geopolitical zones in the country, were interviewed. With a sample of this size, we can say with 95% confidence that the results obtained are statistically precise – within a range of ± 3%. NOIPolls Limited, No1 for country specific polling services in West Africa, which works in technical partnership with the Gallup Organisation (USA), to conduct periodic opinion polls and studies on various socio-economic and political issues in Nigeria. More information is available at www.noi-polls.com